The public, pummelled by the pandemic and consequent socio-economic despair, is being forced to pick from three versions about the Covid-19 vaccination drive. One from the central government with tall claims and heap of statistics, second from the chief ministers firing loud SOS signals of shortages and the third on the CoWin app — the gateway, which is failing to provide the vaccine.

The assessment by experts from the experience of over 100 days of vaccination is that India is in for a long haul. In case the pace of vaccination against coronavirus doesn’t shoot up drastically and more vaccine candidates are not included, India could take another 3.5 years at the “current rate of lethargy” to inoculate 70 per cent of its entire population, a threshold required to achieve herd immunity.

Sources say that universal vaccination of 135 crore people is not even a discussion point right now.

The vaccine math arrived through a back-of-the-envelope calculation that shows that 94.5 crore people need to be given two shots of Covishield or Covaxin for herd immunity. This means a requirement of 189 crore vaccine doses.

To date, the states/UTs have been provided nearly 19 crore vaccine doses. The vaccine drive has been on for 115 days. This means on average the daily supply is 15 lakh vaccines or 4.5 crores each month. At the current rate of supply in 12 months from the start of vaccination, 54 crore vaccine doses will reach states/UTs. It would take over three years to supply 189 crore vaccine doses.

LONG HAUL

Herd Immuninty

>> Population of India — 135 crore

>> Vaccine coverage for herd immunity — 94.5 crore People

>> Total vaccine doses needed — 189 crore

>> Current supply 54 crore a year

>> At current rate time needed — 3.5 years

THE GOOD

On Monday, the government countered claims of shortage with an assurance that at the end of May 10, 17,26,33,761 vaccine doses had been administered including first doses for 5,54,97,658 in the age-group 45 to 60 and 71,73,939 second doses.

Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan on Monday afternoon announced on Twitter that more than 18 crore vaccine doses had been supplied to states and UTs, and that they had 1 crore vaccine in balance to be administered.

The Centre assured that 9 lakh doses will be received in three days and 53 lakh soon after.

THE BAD

In a sharp contrast to the Centre’s availability assurance, the Delhi government led by Arvind Kejriwal issued an SOS call. Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain expressed anxiety over the fact that there is enough Covaxin to last only a day and Covishield for around four days. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said for both groups — 18-44 and 45+, the national capital will require 83 lakh doses per month to vaccinate the population in the next three months. Delhi right now has a population of 92 lakh within the 18-44 age-group.

Odisha Chief Minister is looking at floating a global tender to augment the poor supply of vaccines for the state. 

When PM Modi on Sunday called Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh told him that the state was unable to initiate phase-III of the vaccination process on May 1 for the 18-44 age-group people, and that the process could start on May 10 after 1 lakh doses were received.

AND THE FRUSTRATING

CoWin app hunts vaccine availability and booking as per area PIN Codes. Search for vaccine for the 18+ to 44 years category in the first five PIN codes of India, all in Delhi covering most of Lutyens Delhi and surrounding areas yielded the following results on Monday between 2 pm and 3 pm.

PIN Code 110001

This is India’s PIN Code number-1. It covers the Parliament House, the Sansad Marg, the Supreme Court, Janpath, Vice President house, The Election Commission, bungalows of top ministers, North and South Avenues, which are homes to hundreds of MPs.